понедельник, 24 июня 2019 | О ПРОЕКТЕ | КОНТАКТЫ

Игорь Яковенко: Путин обрушил надежды россиян Для повышения уровня доверия к своей власти у Владимира Путина осталась только война. Других рычагов у него нет. Война мобилизует

По данным Левада-центра, в России за последние шесть лет армия впервые «обогнала»» президента в уровне доверия – 66% против 58% (против 69% и 75% в 2017-м году соответственно). Значение «индекса доверия» к президенту РФ за прошедший год снизилось практически в два раза, в целом уровень доверия к нему возвращается к показателям, фиксируемым в 2013-м году – ред.

Действительно, данные опросов, которые получены осенью 2018 года свидетельствуют о том, что все, что происходит в России в этом году, довольно серьезно подорвало доверие ко всем ветвям власти.

Прежде всего это, конечно, пенсионная реформа. Потому что все, что происходит в мире – уничтожение Сирии, борьба с оппозицией, когда людей сажают – это все люди не воспринимают как непосредственно касающееся их. Это все очень далеко – и Сирия, и Украина, и оппозиция. Это все далеко, это не дома.

А пенсионная реформа – это дома. Это непосредственно надежды женщин посвятить себя внукам, надежды мужчин отдохнуть и пожить своей личной жизнью. Вот эти надежды обрушены, причем обрушены непосредственно Путиным при всем желании спихнуть на кого-то другого ответственность за это – это, конечно, не получается. Все понимают, что это Путин. Ну, или по крайней мере бОльшая часть граждан понимает, что это Путин. Отсюда обрушение.

На кого, собственно говоря, сейчас делают ставку? Армия, благодаря картинке в телевизоре, выглядит внушительно. Российской армии сделан внушительный имидж – постоянно показываются удары по Сирии, «мы там уничтожаем террористов». То, что на самом деле там происходит – геноцид сирийского народа – об не знает практически никто в России.

Ну вот, показывают ракеты. Постоянная милитаристская истерика по телевизору, когда можно в любой день включить новости, аналитическую программу, ток-шоу, и обязательно будут показаны какие-то кадры каких-то ракет, которые то куда-то везут, то они откуда-то вылетают, т.е. кого-то убивают. В общем говоря, показано, что действительно у России такие могучие мускулы.

Поэтому в этой ситуации армия предстает как какой-то единственный институт, которому можно доверять. Это такое ожидаемое, понятное явление.

В этом вопросе и во всех аналогичных вопросах есть одна проблема. Дело в том, что это недоверие к верховной власти очень плохо конвертируется в какое-то желание что-то изменить. Потому что известно по этому же опросу, что 41% граждан считают, что Россия идет в неправильном направлении. Довольно большое количество людей – 41%. А абсолютное большинство не доверяет правительству.

Но эти соображения практически никак не конвертируются в какие-то действия, потому что вряд ли можно считать конвертацией этого недовольства отдельное протестное голосование в четырех регионах России. Ну да, там было протестное голосование, в четырех из 80-ти регионов России. Этого явно недостаточно.

Поэтому говорить о том, что все, сегодня режим рушится, а завтра будет смена власти, не приходится.

Здесь можно согласиться с госпожой Шевцовой, которая сказала, что это не системный кризис, это гниение. Но здесь же я могу не согласиться с уважаемой Лилией Федоровной, которая сказала, что в результате гниения не происходит обрушение режима. И я с этим не согласен, потому что когда постепенно подгнивают основы режима (а основой режима является безусловно все-таки то или иное доверие хоть к чему-то во власти), то в конечном итоге режим рушится. И это произойдет обязательно. Вопрос: когда? Это вечная непредсказуемость России.

О рычагах Путина для повышения уровня доверия к своей власти

Война. Других рычагов у Путина нет. Только война. У него практически все рычаги, которыми он обладал на протяжении двух десятилетий своей власти в России, ликвидированы. Никаких других возможностей, кроме войны у Путина не осталось. Поэтому, конечно, это будет продолжение войны в Сирии, это будут провокации в Украине, возможно какие-то другие регионы. Но кроме войны у Путина нет ничего. Война мобилизует.


Игорь Яковенко / Обозреватель
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