понедельник, 24 июня 2019 | О ПРОЕКТЕ | КОНТАКТЫ

Дмитрий Тымчук: РПЦ-ФСБ проиграла стратегическую битву за Украину Но пособники Кремля будут стремиться дестабилизировать обстановку в Украине с помощью имитации «религиозного противостояния» после предоставления томоса

Группа ИС продолжает отслеживать ситуацию в регионах Украины в свете ожидаемого предоставления Томоса об автокефалии единой Украинской православной церкви. Мы уже неоднократно сообщали о планах и состоявшихся акциях пособников Кремля, стремящихся дестабилизировать обстановку в нашей стране с помощью имитации «религиозного противостояния».

Очевидно, что после предоставления Томоса эти попытки не прекратятся, а будут осуществляться с утроенной энергией. В данном контексте очень многое будет зависеть не только от спецслужб и правоохранителей, но и от местных властей.

Особое внимание мы уделяем Харьковской и Одесской областям, поскольку для адептов «русского мира» они являются приоритетными целями. Вынужден констатировать, что ситуация в данных регионах отличается: риски в Одессе значительно выше.

Одесскую область российская сторона пытается использовать в качестве застрельщика провокаций, которые затем должны вызвать цепную реакцию по всей стране. Например, такая попытка с участием региональных депутатов готовилась в августе перед визитом в Стамбул гражданина Гундяева. Но её удалось предотвратить. В итоге РПЦ не смогла легализовать большой массив сфабрикованных «доказательств» негативного отношения украинцев к автокефалии. Отчего визит получился не просто провальным – унизительным.

Две недели назад именно в Одесскую область привезли патриарха Александрийского Феодора II, который сделал ряд выгодных России заявлений, поскольку чрезвычайно зависим от поддержки из Москвы. К слову Феодор в 1985-90 гг. был экзархом Александрийского патриархата при РПЦ (подворье в Одессе), опекал греческую общину, поддерживал гуманитарные проекты. На официальном сайте Александрийской патриархии Одесса и сейчас обозначена как «город в России». Он был единственным церковным деятелем в чине патриарха, который участвовал в интронизации Кирилла.

Т.е., связи как с Кремлём, так и с Одессой более чем тесные. И Москва сейчас пытается использовать предстоятеля одной из древнейших христианских церквей (объединяет около 6,5 млн. верующих) в качестве «торпеды».

Понимая, что стратегическая битва за Украину проиграна, РПЦ-ФСБ пытается создать в Одессе базу для «духовной ДНР». Чему способствует местный политический расклад, при котором губернатор области пока не является адекватным противовесом ни крайне одиозному мэру Одессы Г.Труханову, ни местным феодалам, таким, например, как С.Кивалов. Во многом именно поэтому для проведения серьёзных операций против криминала и сепаратистов в Одессу командируют выездные бригады из Киева.

В Харькове ситуация иная. Она далеко не безоблачная (например, рейтинги пророссийских партий, отношение к НАТО и т.д. сопоставимы с одесскими), но принципиально отличается.

Вчера три исследовательских структуры (Украинский институт социальных исследований имени А. Яременко, Центр социальных и маркетинговых исследований SOCIS и Центр «Социальный мониторинг») обнародовали свои оценки социально-политической ситуации в Харьковской области. Согласно этим данным, инициативу создания единой поместной УПЦ уже поддерживают 23,7% харьковчан, еще 30% не определились. Т.е., имеется значительный потенциал для роста, хотя противники томоса всё ещё обладают относительным большинством.

При этом в Харьковском регионе отсутствует авторитетный промосковский церковный лидер, которого РПЦ могла бы назначить вождём фронды.

Что ещё более важно – на Харьковщине достаточно высокий уровень поддержки областной власти. Глава Харьковской ОГА Юлия Светличная имеет лучший баланс доверия-недоверия среди местных политиков (у неё +42%, для сравнения: у Е.Мураева — +2,6%, у М.Добкина — -36,1%). Если мэр Харькова Г.Кернес популярен преимущественно в городе, то Светличная имеет высокий рейтинг как в городе (29%), так и в области (46,1%), где с большим отрывом опережает локальных бонз.

Повальное бегство соратников Геннадия Адольфовича в Россию указывает, что мэра Харькова держат в тонусе, и у него нет особой мотивации делать резкие антиукраинские движения. Но даже в случае помутнения у товарища Кернеса, ситуация в регионе останется контролируемой, потому что есть понятный центр власти. В этой связи Харьков сохраняет роль стабилизирующего фактора на Востоке.

Это не исключает, что завтра Кремль не попытается устроить на Харьковщине показательный демарш. Но здесь раскачать ситуацию будет значительно сложнее, хотя область граничит и с Россией, и с зоной ООС.

В целом местные власти во всех регионах должны сейчас проявлять особую бдительность, потому что враг будет комбинировать факторы внешнего воздействия (теракты, диверсии) и внутреннего нагнетания.


Дмитрий Тымчук / Facebook
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