понедельник, 20 мая 2019 | О ПРОЕКТЕ | КОНТАКТЫ

Кирилл Сазонов: Знакомьтесь с новым президентом Украины Запрос на новые лица не просто временный тренд, а наша реальность. Порошенко, Тимошенко и Гриценко в эту категорию никак не попадают

В последние дни что-то уж очень радикализировалась политическая составляющая Фейсбука. Одна сторона доказывает, что только Петр Алексеевич молча тянет лямку и спасает страну, другие, что Юлия Владимировна стала совсем другой и предложит нам самый новый курс. И кто если не он (она)?! Меньше пафоса, друзья. Предлагаю строить прогнозы с юмором. Ведь реальная картина может оказаться совсем не такой пафосной, как вам сейчас кажется. Просто потому что кроме рейтинга грамотные политтехнологи всегда учитывают и фактор антирейтинга. Это часто даже важнее. Не верите – спросите у Тимошенко про президентские выборы в 2010 году. Или кто-то думает, что половина страны сошла с ума и полюбила Януковича? Нет, его никто не любил. Но антирейтинг Юлии Владимировны был выше.

Последний соцопрос группы «Рейтинг» отводит действующему президенту только седьмое место. На первом Тимошенко, на втором Гриценко, тут мы привыкли, это за год до выборов всегда так. Зато растут Владимир Зеленский и Святослав Вакарчук. То есть запрос на новые лица не просто временный тренд, а наша реальность. И Порошенко, Тимошенко и Гриценко в эту самую категорию никак не попадают. Какие уж там новые? При этом Зеленский со своей партией «Слуга народа» уже обошел Вакарчука и имеет почти 10%. Без рекламы, бордов, агитации, даже без объявления о намерении идти на выборы – 10% со старта. Неплохо, скажу я вам. И причина именно в отсутствии антирейтинга. Новичок получает кредит доверия – такая вот реальность.

А теперь представим, что Петр Алексеевич во второй тур не проходит, а проходит Юлия Владимировна или Анатолий Гриценко и… Зеленский! И тут карта антирейтинга становится козырной, новое лицо выигрывает у надоевшего и вуаля! Знакомьтесь с новым президентом. При таком сценарии Петру Алексеевичу можно смело паковать чемоданы. А Юлии Владимировне наоборот – незачем их собирать, никто никуда не переезжает. Скажете, шутка? Конечно, шутка. Но в каждой шутке… Так что меньше надрыва и пафоса, дорогие друзья. Жизнь прекрасна и удивительна.


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