четверг, 23 мая 2019 | О ПРОЕКТЕ | КОНТАКТЫ

Андрей Пионтковский: Москва оказалась в неудобном положении Явное признание в том, что Китай представляет угрозу России, обрушивает всю систему внутренней и внешней российской пропаганды

Москва уже так завралась, что отступать поздно. Недавно была опубликована статья посла США в России Джона Хантсмана, который всю эту историю с ракетой 9М729 Новатор, которая нарушает параметры ядерного договора, довольно подробно рассказал. Оказывается, американцы фиксировали и время полета, и географию, и дальность – все эти сведения Москве переданы. Но Москва всего, что произошло, никогда не признает.

Впрочем, существует вероятность другого сценария, о котором говорят и пишут многие эксперты, в том числе и я. Речь идет о модификации договора. Сейчас он запрещает США и России распространять и размещать ракеты определенного класса по всей планете. Почему бы не сузить этот географический охват – запретить размещать ракеты только на европейском континенте, от Атлантического океана до Урала?

Вообще это устроило бы всех. При таком раскладе сохраняется то, ради чего создавали этот договор – он ликвидировал американские ракеты в Европе, и российские – направленные на Европу. Да, в случае модификации договора ядерная опасность все равно остается, она будет с нами до конца человечества. Ядерное оружие никуда не денется. Но хотя бы ракеты в Европе будут запрещены.

Ведь почему американцы вышли из договора? Не только потому, что Россия его нарушает. В конце концов, это один вид ракеты – можно было бы как-то продолжать переговоры и закрыть на это глаза. Но США нужны ракеты средней дальности в Азии, направленные на Китай.

И самое парадоксальное в этой ситуации то, что они нужны и России. Но она боится в этом признаться и вообще боится в чем-либо обидеть Китай. Этих же ракет средней и малой дальности сотни в Китае, и они не могут достигать территории США, но могут достигать практически всей территории РФ, включая Москву.

Поэтому с точки зрения чисто военной – и об этом много говорили военные и в России, которые всегда были недовольны договором именно по этой причине – решение «в Европе нельзя, а в Азии можно» устраивает и США, и Россию, и Европу, на которую не будут направлены российские ракеты.

То есть с военной точки зрения это выгодно России, но она же играет в игру великой дружбы с Китаем. Стратегическое партнерство и все такое. И это явное признание в том, что Китай представляет угрозу России, обрушивает всю систему внутренней и внешней российской пропаганды.

Я бы на месте американцев и европейцев предложил именно такое решение. И оно поставило бы кремлевское руководство в очень неудобное положение. Отказавшись его принять, они продемонстрировали бы своему населению, что по существу являются вассалами Китая.

Касательно разговоров о том, что Украина может стать жертвой этого ядерного кризиса, то так говорят лишь в России. Мол, в Украине будут расположены американские ракеты с двухминутным подлетом до Москвы. Но уверяю вас: американцы не собираются размещать ракеты в Европе. Их выход из договора формально объясняется нарушением со стороны России – но это скорее повод. Они хотят размещать ракеты в Юго-Восточной Азии. И Украина в данном контексте их совершенно не беспокоит.

Так удастся ли заключить что-то новое в течение тех шести месяцев, отведенных на полный выход США из ядерного договора?

Нет, я думаю, что Москва упрется в своей дурацкой позиции. Кроме того, Кремль уже настолько зависим от Китая, что китайцы просто не разрешат ему это сделать. И это станет очень серьезным внутреннеполитическим вопросом России. Фактически Кремль обнажит российскому населению, что он полностью игнорирует угрозу Китая и по существу является китайским вассалом.

И это будет самый интересный политический побочный продукт кризиса с ядерным договором.


Андрей Пионтковский / Новое время
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