вторник, 25 июня 2019 | О ПРОЕКТЕ | КОНТАКТЫ

Александр Охрименко: Смогут ли украинцы заработать на депозитах в 2019 году Если в 2019 году курс доллар/гривна не преодолеет отметку в 31 гривен за доллар США, то депозиты в гривне принесут больше дохода

Начался новый год, и опять часто начали спрашивать на счет депозитов. Люди волнуются и в тот же момент хотят понять, что им делать с их деньгами. Давайте разберемся вместе.

На текущий момент ставки по депозитам в гривне выросли, если сравнивать с прошлым годом. Согласно данным Украинского индекса депозитов населения (этот индекс рассчитывается по ставкам депозитов для населения среди 20 крупнейших банков Украины). На начало 2019 года средняя ставка по депозитам в гривне на 12 месяцев составила около16,4%. Год назад этот показатель был на уровне 13,5%. То есть, появился рост. Это хорошо. Но почему рост? Открою тайну, которая не тайна для банкиров, но тайна для многих украинцев.

В Украине очень плохо работает кредитование. Фактически не кредитуют бизнес за исключением госмонополий. Население может получить только потребительские кредиты. Ипотечное кредитование для населения не работает. И вряд ли что-то может поменяться в 2019 году. Год выборов и НБУ больше занимается политикой, чем экономикой. Поэтому сейчас банки зарабатывают на депозитных сертификатах НБУ. Ставка по этим депозитным сертификатам привязана к учетной ставке НБУ. А так как учетная ставка НБУ сейчас 18%, то доходность депозитных сертификатов НБУ на уровне 16-18% в зависимости от срока обращения. Поэтому банки привлекают депозиты населения в гривне и активно инвестируют деньги в депозитные сертификаты НБУ. Риск непогашения равен нулю. (НБУ выплачивают проценты по своим депозитным сертификатам за счет эмиссии гривны).

Проблем для банков никаких, а доход хороший. В результате и ставки по депозитам для населения в гривне выросли, и будет оставаться на этом уровне до тех пор, пока НБУ не снизит учетную ставку, а если повысит, то и банки повысят ставки по депозитам в гривне.

Вот такая простая математика. Поэтому нет ничего удивительного, что сейчас ставки по депозитам в гривне для населения выше, чем год назад, потому что год назад доходность депозитных сертификатов НБУ была на уровне 15%.

Кроме депозитных сертификатов НБУ банки сейчас зарабатывают на государственных ценных бумагах, который у нас называют ОВГЗ (облигации внутреннего государственного займа). Эти ценные бумаги размещает Минфин Украины под очень хороший процент. Гривневые ОВГЗ приносят доход от 18-20% годовых, ОВГЗ в долларах США 6,7-7,5% а ОВГЗ в евро 4,6%. Именно в эти ценные бумаги банки часто инвестируют валюту, которую получают у населения в виде валютных депозитов. Риск инвестиций в ОВГЗ очень низкий. Минфин Украины своевременно погашает ОВГЗ и платит проценты.

Самое интересное, что Минфин Украины платит проценты по ОВГЗ за счет налогов, которые другие украинцы платят в казну. Как пример: украинцы покупают товары и платят НДС, за счет этого НДС Минфин Украины выплачивает проценты по ОВГЗ, а уже банки за счет процентов по ОВГЗ выплачивают проценты по депозитам населения. И опять же в 2019 году ожидается, что ставки по ОВГЗ будет остаться на высоком уровне. Выборы требуют большего количества новых и новых пиар вливания (повышение пенсий, зарплата бюджетникам и военным, льготы для нужных компаний), все это требует много денег из госбюджета и покрывать дефицит из госбюджета Минфин будет за счет ОВГЗ. Там что пока что доход устраивает всех, кроме экономики. Это очень опасно, когда банки не кредитуют бизнес, а больше занимаются финансовыми спекуляциями с НБУ и Минфином Украины. Но в ближайший год это будет продолжаться и поэтому нужно с этим смириться и не забывать получать доход на свой депозит, пока есть возможность.

Во многом отсутствие нормального кредитования бизнеса и выплата процентов по ОВГЗ за счет НДС и ведет к росту розничных цен. Бизнес вынужден отсутствие денег перекрывать ростом цен. В результате инфляция в Украине в 2019 году будет значительно выше, чем обещали 7% в госбюджет. За 2018 год она составила около 10%, а в 2019 году ждем на уровне 15%. Но даже при таком раскладе депозиты в гривне могут перекрыть потери от инфляции в текущем году. Можно не рисковать и держать деньги дома, то нужно понимать, что инфляция обесценивает деньги быстрее в Украине, чем можно их потратить. Поэтому есть два выхода. Или потратить деньги на нужные расходы или разместить их в банке на депозит на срок 12 месяцев и больше, пока проценты высокие. Хотя нельзя много заработать, но можно хотя бы защитить деньги от инфляции.

Валютные риски. В Украине всегда есть валютный риск. Поэтому его просто приходится учитывать и стараться не держать все деньги только в гривне или только в долларах США. Ставки по депозитам в долларах США были и будут ниже, чем в гривне, так как доходность ОВГЗ в долларах значительно ниже, чем в гривне, и банкам просто не нужны дорогие доллары. Как результат – для того чтобы больше заработать, надо выбирать гривну, но помнить о девальвации гривны. Исходя из текущей доходности гривневых и долларовых депозитов «точка разворота» (это когда депозит в гривне по доходность сравнивается с депозитом в долларах США за счет девальвации гривны) составляет 31 грн за доллар США.

Если в 2019 году курс доллар/гривна не преодолеет отметку в 31 грн за доллар США, то депозиты в гривне принесут больше дохода. Если же курс доллара будет выше 31 грн, то депозиты в долларах США будут более выгодные. Окончательное решение – какой депозит лучше гривневый или долларовый – каждый принимает самостоятельно.

Как видите, нормальный расклад для размещения денег в банках на депозитах в Украине, если есть деньги. Хотя выборы и пугают, но банкопада не будет. Поэтому в 2019 году могут закрыться всего несколько небольших банков, но они сейчас малопопулярны, и, если они и закроются, мало кто это заметит. Что касается крупных банков, им ничего сейчас не грозит.

Скорее, грозит украинцам снижение ставки НБУ и тогда ставки по депозитам в гривне и долларах США упадут. Такая закономерность у нас существует.


Александр Охрименко / Корреспондент.net
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