вторник, 25 июня 2019 | О ПРОЕКТЕ | КОНТАКТЫ

Алексей Голобуцкий: Чего ждать после зачистки Захарченко Для «ЛДНР» нужно, чтобы ФСБ время от времени кого-то отстреливала, тогда остальные резко вспоминают о дисциплине, субординации и точном выполнении задач

То, что было принято решение убрать Захарченко именно сейчас, слабо отразится на ситуации и на поведении всех заинтересованных сторон.

Украина продолжит укреплять армию и продвигать линию фронта к границе. Продолжит столь же активное взаимодействие с НАТО и США для получения всей возможной помощи – в частности, вновь зашла речь об увеличении поставок летального оружия из США.

Взаимоотношения с Европой в целом и с участниками Нормандского формата останутся той же попыткой преодолеть прессинг газпромовских денег аргументами касательно европейской системы безопасности и стратегических интересов Франции и Германии. И мы продолжим всё теснее «дружить с США против России и Европы», склонной к сепаратным переговорам с агрессором и лоббированию его интересов на международной арене.

«ЛДНР» продолжат выполнять команды Кремля. Им это нужно: чтобы ФСБ время от времени кого-то отстреливала, тогда остальные резко вспоминают о дисциплине, субординации и точном выполнении задач. Точно так же продолжатся обстрелы Украины в рамках Школьного, Урожайного, Рождественского и любого другого «перемирия» – всё как всегда, ничего нового. Единственное, на что повлияла зачистка Захарченко, – увеличился поток мигрантов. Те, кому удалось награбить достаточно денег, всё чаще решают бросить эту мутную историю и сбежать, желательно в Европу. Или как минимум отправить туда жён и детей. Благо, получить украинский биометрический паспорт просто и недорого.

Россия всего лишь продолжила свою обычную риторику «мы не будем выполнять Минские соглашения, потому что Украина не выполняет». Как бы РФ ни раскручивала в СМИ «для внутреннего потребления» тезис о «безжалостных украинских спецагентах, взорвавших героя», на самом деле ей совершенно не нужен повод для поддержания военных действий на необходимом уровне. Так что «воспитательная акция» отдельно, уклонение от любых обязательств по Минску – отдельно.

Кстати, это отлично опровергает «зраду»: «Минские соглашения выгодны Москве и невыгодны Украине, Порошенко – изменник, раз их подписал!». Потому что Украина как раз уже четыре года эксплуатирует эти соглашения в своих интересах. Не стоит забывать, с насколько смехотворных ресурсов мы начинали оборону против России. И именно Минские соглашения дали нам время мобилизоваться, найти союзников, а союзникам – время развернуть удушение агрессора санкциями.

А заявление Сергея Лаврова о том, что Россия больше не будет сотрудничать в Минском формате, «раз они [Украина] выбрали путь террора» собственно к Минским соглашениям имеет, вероятнее всего, опосредованное отношение. Скорее столь резкие действия и заявления обусловлены активизацией переговоров о введении миротворцев на всю территорию оккупированного Донбасса. Ведь миротворцы, видеонаблюдение и всё менее слепая миссия ОБСЕ крайне неудобны России – ведь вынуждают отводить регулярные оккупационные войска и ослаблять контроль иррегулярных.

Но в любом случае Захарченко пустили в расход просто для поддержания статус-кво (ну и плюс дисциплинарная мера для сохранения максимального контроля над террористами): Россия сделала серьёзную ставку на выборы в Украине, как президентские, так и парламентские. Поэтому серьезных решений не будет до ноября 2019-го минимум.


Алексей Голобуцкий / Корреспондент.net
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