воскресенье, 19 мая 2019 | О ПРОЕКТЕ | КОНТАКТЫ

Сергей Фурса: Россия – крупнейший инвестор Украины? Почему зрада ненастоящая В Украину за полгода пришло $436 млн из России. Казалось бы, натуральная зрада. Если только не попытаться понять, что же это за инвестиции

Появилась новая зрада: статистика инвестиций в Украину. Ее прочитали по диагонали. И теперь говорят, что Россия – крупнейший инвестор Украины. И это на фоне слива патриотов, липецкой фабрики и Медведчука в телевизоре. Сплошная зрада.

А что на самом деле? А на самом деле – все с точностью до наоборот. Да, есть статистика прямых иностранных инвестиций в Украину. Скажем честно: инвестиций там мало. Даже очень мало: не торопятся инвесторы к нам. Но это, собственно, не новость: как в 2011 году они сбежали, так больше и не торопятся. А сейчас, на фоне происходящего в мире, кризисов в Турции и Аргентине, и подавно не торопятся. Это плохо, ведь инвестиции – это единственный путь к экономическому росту. И нам очень надо убедить иностранных инвесторов, чтобы они пришли. Но сейчас о другом.

По той же статистике, на бумаге, крупнейшим инвестором в украинскую экономику является Россия. Доля прямых инвестиций России в Украину по итогам первого полугодия – высокая. Согласно статистике, в страну пришло $1,3 млрд. Из них – $436 млн из России. Казалось бы, натуральная зрада. Если только не попытаться понять, что же это за инвестиции. И тогда, скорее, получим самую натуральную перемогу.

Эти деньги – докапитализация российских банков. Звучит тоже зрадливо. Как так: российские банки, несмотря на протесты патриотов, увеличивают капитал в Украине? Прямо-таки экспансия. Но что на самом деле? А на самом деле, это – не инвестиции, это, скорее, похоже на выплату за заложников. Что происходит с российскими банками? Украина фактически взяла их в заложники. Банки под санкциями – выводить деньги из Украины они не могут. Продать свои финансовые учреждения у них тоже не получается. Закрыть их просто так – нельзя. Банкротство – плохая идея, когда ты большой системный банк, представленный в разных странах мира. В итоге, российские банки вынуждены поддерживать свои дочерние банки в Украине, выбрав стратегию постепенно их умерщвлять: другого выхода им не оставили.

У украинских «дочек» российских государственных банков есть кредиты перед материнскими банками. Это обычная практика. Материнский банк дает дешевый кредит своему дочернему банку, а тот уже кредитует бизнес. Но мы помним, что есть санкции. А, значит, вернуть эти кредиты своим материнским банкам дочерние банки в Украине просто не могут. Что они делают с этими зависшими кредитами? Переводят их в капитал. Транзакция – только на бумаге. Одна часть пассива баланса банка (кредитная задолженность) просто переходил в другую строчку – капитал. Но что в итоге? В итоге, эта транзакция проходит как прямая инвестиция. И, бабах, у вас уже российские банки – крупнейшие инвесторы в экономику Украины. По своей ли воле они это делают? Нет. Является ли это экспансией Украины – точно нет. Они бы сбежали с радостью, но не могут. Повышает ли это зависимость Украины от российских денег? Вообще нет. Это все последствия активной экспансии российских денег в 2010-2013 годах, когда российские банки под руководством Кремля кредитовали в Украине все, что движется. Теперь уже не кредитуют. И кредиты им тоже, прямо скажем, не очень возвращают. Но шлейф той экспансии иногда все еще отражается в статистике.

Вот и все: никакой зрады. И никакой особой перемоги. Просто слегка приятно, что можно добавить много головной боли российским государственным банкам: в этой статистике больше ничего нет. И дает она нам пищу для размышлений только в контексте того, что миллиард долларов иностранных инвестиций для такой страны, как Украина, – это очень мало. Но это уже совсем другая история.


Сергей Фурса / Facebook
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