понедельник, 20 мая 2019 | О ПРОЕКТЕ | КОНТАКТЫ

Александр Коваленко: В мире витает призрак нефти по $10 США и Саудовская Аравия способны без труда диктовать условия нефтяному рынку

О том, что Саудовская Аравия сейчас в тандеме с США наращивает добычу нефти, я писал уже неоднократно. И о том, что эти действия обусловлены в немалой степени внешней политикой США, тоже. Но, вот, что интересно, члены ОПЕК обеспокоены такими тенденциями в энергетической политике двух стран, способных без труда диктовать условиях рынку.

Так, если рост добычи в СА и США может компенсировать падение оной в Венесуэле и назревающий запрет на экспорт нефти из Ирана, то с падением закупок «черного золота» развивающимися рынками может крайне негативно сказаться на ценах. Речь идет о Китае, который уже уменьшил импорт нефти, в связи с торговой войной с США, а так же о Турции, которую кризис укрывает зеленым пледом рецессии.

Что интересно, подобная ситуация создалась в 1997 году, когда на фоне роста добычи нефти, цена на неё упала ниже $10, а так же в 1973, когда из-за эмбарго «черное золото» нещадно обвалилось. И вот, за окном 2018 и два ведущих игрока рынка начинают игру на рост добычи и демпинг.

А потому, кто знает, быть может, такова на рынке традиция, каждые 20 (+/-) лет обваливать цены так, что даже $25 за баррель покажется сказкой? Хотя, в условиях, когда у Украины главный враг это страна, зависящая напрямую от цен на нефть, этот прогноз слишком оптимистичен. С другой стороны, признаки надвигающегося пике на лицо и это не может не радовать.

Александр Коваленко / Live Journal

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