вторник, 25 июня 2019 | О ПРОЕКТЕ | КОНТАКТЫ

Российские паспорта для «ЛДНР»: Какой торг Путин готовит под Зеленского Донбасс готовят к радикальному изменению реальности. В которой предусматривается постепенное окончание боевых действий и реализация приднестровского сценария

Подготовка к массовой раздаче российского гражданства жителям сепаратистских анклавов может быть как нехитрым политическим трюком, так и подготовкой к «заморозке» войны на Донбассе.

Сразу несколько российских СМИ сообщили о том, что президент России Владимир Путин собирается после второго тура президентских выборов в Украине подписать указ, которым предоставит жителям «ДНР» и «ЛНР» право на получение российского гражданства в упрощенном порядке. При этом сам указ, по данным источников Коммерсанта и РБК, уже готов и только ждет подписи.

Информацию о существовании проекта такого указа, подтвердил руководитель комитета Госдумы по делам СНГ Леонид Калашников, заявив, что «такой указ может быть подписан сразу после выборов (в Украине – ред.)». Предполагается, что согласно этому указу жители сепаратистских анклавов смогут получить российские паспорта без обязательных в других случаях экзаменов и соблюдения требования о проживании на России более пяти лет. А по данным источников, близких к руководству «ДНР», основными условиями изменения гражданства будут наличие паспорта одной из «республик» и сдача украинского паспорта.

Прежде всего, подготовка подобного шага накануне выборов в Украине – и следующий явно запланированный «слив» информации про этот указ – выглядят как сознательная провокация. Кто бы не получил должность президента 21 апреля – Порошенко или Зеленский – новому украинскому руководителю придется максимально жестко реагировать на подобный шаг России.

Для чего нужно такое решение Путину? Ведь оно не только настраивает против него нового украинского президента, но и заставляет союзников Украины говорить о безоговорочной попытке углубить аннексию и контроль над ситуацией в «республиках». Что может привести к новым санкциям, реальным – со стороны США, и декларативным – со всех остальных сторон. Это решение будет стимулировать недовольство россиян – поскольку сотни тысяч, если не миллионы новых «граждан», получат право требовать от государства какие-то социальные гарантии и услуги.

Кроме того, получение российских паспортов головорезами из числа «ополченцев» даст им возможность свободно передвигаться по всей России. И если учесть тот факт, что они и без паспортов успели отличиться во многих мутных и кровавых историях, в случае получения российских паспортов их возможности для ведения единственного понятного для них бизнеса – разбоя и бандитизма – сильно возрастут.

Ответов на то, для чего эта история нужна Путину, на самом деле, может быть несколько. Первый – и довольно тривиальный – заключается в том, что в случае избрания Зеленского этот указ так и не будет подписан. Что позволит новому президенту записать себе всю историю в актив, констатировав, что с ним Россия «заняла более конструктивную позицию». После чего между сторонами пойдет долгий и непростой политический торг, в ходе которого Кремль попытается «продавить» более или менее завуалированный свой вариант мирного соглашения.

А другая возможность состоит в том, что Донбасс готовят к радикальному изменению реальности. В которой предусматривается постепенное окончание боевых действий и реализация приднестровского сценария. При котором часть российской армии будет выведена из региона, а часть – объявлена «миротворческими силами». Введенными, конечно, «по просьбе руководства самопровозглашенных республик». При этом население, получив российское гражданство, банально будет бояться возвращения украинского суверенитета над регионом, и на любом референдуме или выборах будет голосовать так, как нужно Кремлю не только под дулами автоматов ополченцев, но и под фото и видеокамерами наблюдателей ОБСЕ. По мере того, как будут стихать пушки, готовность Европы держать единый с США санкционный фронт против России может медленно, но неуклонно испариться. Россия сможет заменить в «ЛДНР» большое количество наемников, офицеров и военных специалистов различных профилей на подразделения регулярной армии, укомплектованные кем угодно – хоть солдатами срочной службы. Что заметно удешевит продолжение контроля над Донбассом.

И таким образом на смену гибридной войне медленно придет еще более гибридный мир.


Тарас Паньо / Depo.ua
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