среда, 22 мая 2019 | О ПРОЕКТЕ | КОНТАКТЫ

Как Путин и Орбан договорились кинуть Украину с газом Украине стоит готовиться к «жизни без трубы» или найти для ГТС варианты альтернативного использования

Переговоры руководителей России и Венгрии прошли ожидаемо в дружеском тоне. Орбан пообещал покупать у России газ по заранее определенной цене до 2020 года. Путин пообещал Орбану построить два новых атомных реактора на АЭС в Пакше. А еще – стороны договорились открыть прямое авиационное сообщение между Будапештом и Казанью. Очевидно, это дело государственного масштаба и важности – без первых лиц никак не разобраться.

Ну а о том, что Венгрия не будет в одностороннем порядке ослаблять антироссийские санкции, руководитель венгерского МИД Петер Сийярто заявил еще до встречи чиновников.

Во всем этом милом междусобойчике для Украины есть один важный момент. Он раскрыт в заявлении Орбана: «Президент (Путин – ред.) говорит, что когда с юга пойдет газопровод, он может прийти и в Венгрию. Нам бы хотелось, чтобы он проходил через Венгрию, и я серьезно попросил президента, чтобы он подумал об этой возможности».

Это заявление, без сомнения, является не самостоятельным решением Орбана. Которому по очевидным причинам абсолютно все равно, откуда получать газ, цена на который уже зафиксирована. Просто венгерского руководителя, очевидно, попросили озвучить это заявление, чтобы оно выглядело как совместная инициатива двух сторон – а не как решение России в принудительном порядке переключить европейского потребителя на газ из газопровода, который идет в обход Украины. Такая себе небольшая словесная плата за реакторы, которые будут строиться, скорее всего, на российские кредитные средства, и, не исключено, за скидки на газ.

И сомневаться в том, что Россия проложит ветку «Турецкого потока» через Венгрию, не приходится. Вложив десятки миллиардов долларов в дело лишения Украины газового транзита, Путин потратит еще сотни миллионов, чтобы довести дело до конца.

Косвенным образом на то, что Россия готовится прекратить транзит через Украину и Польшу – а Запад готовится с этим смириться, говорит и тот факт, что во время визита в Польшу президент США Дональд Трамп прямо заявил, что санкций против компаний, участвующих в проекте «Северный поток-2», не будет. И пообещал полякам постоянную американскую базу, которая, не исключено, должна сыграть роль конфеты, которая подсластит факт потери газового транзита и Варшавой.

На подобном фоне особенно трогательно выглядят, например, заявление официального представителя федерального правительства Германии Штеффена Зайберта, который настаивает на том, что Украина должна модернизировать свою газотранспортную систему и вывести ее из управления «Нафтогазом» для того, чтобы создать условия для долгосрочного транзита газа.

С точки зрения банальной логики, для транзита нужны продавцы, готовые прокачивать газ через украинские трубы – и покупатели, готовые этот газ покупать на нашей западной границе. Без этих двух ключевых элементов никакая модернизация ГТС или реорганизация «Нафтогаза» никому и ничем не поможет.

Поэтому гарантии европейских партнеров относительно сохранения газового транзита выглядят не слишком убедительно. Украине стоит готовиться к «жизни без трубы». И радоваться тому, что десятки миллиардов долларов, потерянных на абсолютно политические «северные» и «турецкий» потоки, привели к ускорению экономического свертывания российского имперского проекта – и не были потрачены на очередные стаи «ихтамнетов» на Донбассе – или где угодно еще.


Роман Федюк / Деловая столица
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