суббота, 25 мая 2019 | О ПРОЕКТЕ | КОНТАКТЫ

История с Ил-20: Почему воевать с Израилем готов только Шойгу Владимир Путин прекрасно понимает, что в случае конфликта с Израилем в Сирии, российские военные усилия в регионе будут очень быстро умножены на ноль

Российский самолет сбили из российского зенитно-ракетного комплекса представители режима, который существует на свете только благодаря российской военной помощи. Виноват, конечно, Израиль

Российское Минобороны, которое притихло на какое-то время после нелепой потери самолета в Сирии, на следующий день просто взорвалось комментариями чиновников. Сначала представитель ведомства Игорь Конашенков на брифинге сообщил журналистам, что «прикрываясь российским самолетом, израильские летчики подставили его под огонь средств ПВО Сирии. В результате Ил-20, у которого эффективная отражающая поверхность на порядок больше, чем у F-16, был сбит ракетой комплекса С-200».

При этом «бомбометание выполнялось недалеко от места нахождения французского фрегата Auvergne и в непосредственной близости от самолета Ил-20, который заходил на посадку», – заявил господин Конашенков, пытаясь проиллюстрировать безответственность «израильской военщины», из-за которой сбили российский самолет бравые сирийские зенитчики. Хорошо, хоть французский фрегат не подбили зенитными ракетами. «Расцениваем данные провокационные действия Израиля как враждебные. Мы оставляем за собой право на адекватные действия в ответ», – подвел итоги Конашенков.

Его шеф, министр обороны России Сергей Шойгу в телефонном разговоре с израильским коллегой Авигдором Либерманом заявил, что трагедия произошла в результате «безответственных действий израильских ВВС», и констатировал, что вина за сбитый российский самолет и гибель экипажа полностью лежит на израильской стороне.

Суть подобной реакции на вчерашнее событие, в общем, понятна. Шойгу, на которого ложится вина за отсутствие адекватной тренировки сирийских «друзей», которым дали ракеты – но не научили ими пользоваться, делает все возможное, чтобы найти виновных. А «если в кране нет воды…», то виноваты, конечно, израильские ВВС, российским офицерам это понятно без лишних подсказок.

Зато Путин, который прекрасно понимает, что в случае конфликта с Израилем в Сирии российские военные усилия в регионе будут очень быстро умножены на ноль, реагирует принципиально иначе. «Здесь скорее это похоже на цепь трагических случайных обстоятельств», – так неожиданно мягко комментирует инцидент российский лидер. Хотя при этом утверждает, что заявления оборонного ведомства были с ним согласованы, и обещает радикальные меры в деле защиты российских военнослужащих. Впрочем, параллельно с этим пресс-секретарь президента России Песков на всякий случай уточняет, что инцидент никак не повлияет на дипломатические договоренности по Сирии – в частности, об отмене наступления на Идлиб.

Зато Израиль в связи с гибелью экипажа российского самолета в небе над Латакией выразил сдержанное сочувствие. Но в самом инциденте обвинил режим Асада, чьи ПВО сбили самолет (что выглядит вполне логично – тем, кто не умеет разбираться с целями, не стоит давать в руки зенитные ракеты). А еще обвинили Иран и ливанское движение «Хезболла». Последние, очевидно, виноваты в том, что не покончили жизнь самоубийством позавчера – потому что в таком случае вчера израильская авиация никого не бомбила, соответственно, асадовские «снайперы» не заполняли бы небеса хаотично запущенными зенитными ракетами.

А насчет долговременных последствий вчерашнего инцидента, то в реальности возможны два сценария. Угрозы российского военного ведомства могут зависнуть в воздухе пустыми звуками. Тогда в Израиле сделают вид, что не услышали бред Шойгу и его подчиненных, подождут несколько недель – и снова начнут налеты. Возможно, предупреждая россиян о их начале не за минуту, как это было вчера, а за две-три. В таком случае Шойгу частично спасет честь мундира, все этот факт поймут и проигнорируют – на чем инцидент будет исчерпан.

А вот в случае, если «обещанные Конашенковым «последствия» будут иметь какую-то практическую реализацию, все может пойти совсем иначе. Поскольку единственной, кажется, реалистичной возможностью России «насолить» Израилю в регионе, где у Москвы есть несколько относительно небольших баз, а у Израиля – целая страна, является срыв российско-израильских договоренностей относительно недопуска иранских войск к границам Израиля. Но в случае, если иранские силы все же выйдут к границе – для их уничтожения будут использованы не только игольные удары авиации. На сирийской земле, где и без того от различных флагов рябит в глазах, вполне может появиться еще один экспедиционный корпус. Который, конечно, не понравится ни в Москве, ни в Дамаске – но будет вполне спокойно воспринят, скажем, турецкими силами, которые вовсе не в восторге от роста иранского влияния, ровно как и курдами, которые увидят в Израиле если и не союзника – то нейтрально настроенного участника событий со своими узко специфическими интересами. И этот факт, скорее всего, трезво оценивают в Кремле, вызвав «на ковер» посла Израиля, но сейчас отказавшись от более радикальных шагов.


Роман Федюк / Деловая столица
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