суббота, 25 мая 2019 | О ПРОЕКТЕ | КОНТАКТЫ

Беларусь без МВФ: Лукашенко капитулировал перед Путиным Отказ Беларуси от льготных кредитов МВФ произошел, без сомнения, под давлением России. Но подали его миру как «заботу о белорусских гражданах»

Президент Беларуси принял решение отказаться от кредита МВФ. Министр финансов страны Максим Ермолович пояснил, что позиции правительства и МВФ относительно структурных реформ, в которых нуждается Беларусь, фактически совпадают. Но по мнению главы Беларуси Александра Лукашенко, программа реформирования, на которой настаивал МВФ в обмен на льготный кредит, может обернуться «шоком для населения». Поэтому, конечно, реализовывать ее не будут.

Неожиданностью заявление Ермоловича, конечно, не стало. Поскольку программу сотрудничества с МВФ активно лоббировали министры из экономического блока, которые в конце августа были массово отправлены в отставку. При этом переговоры с МВФ президент Беларуси тогда назвал «безмозглой позицией» со стороны премьер-министра, трех его заместителей и министра финансов Беларуси – которые и были заменены.

Параллельно с заменой правительства развивалась и очередная экономическая конфронтация между Минском и Москвой. Суть которой заключалась в том, что Владимир Путин портил Лукашенко его маленький бизнес. Суть бизнеса заключалась в том, что Беларусь закупала у России нефть и продукты нефтепереработки на беспошлинной основе – как член Союзного государства. А перепродавала тогда эти же продукты на 30-40% дороже уже на внешний рынок – в том числе, и в Украину. Для понимания масштабов этого гешефта – Беларусь производит из российской нефти 25 миллионов тонн нефтепродуктов в год, при том что сама потребляет 6-7 миллионов тонн. Похожая ситуация наблюдается со сжиженным газом, экспорт которого из Беларуси в Украину в этом году вырос на 35% (при том, что каких-то мощных месторождений в Беларуси вроде не нашли и не начали разрабатывать). По очень приблизительным оценкам, прибыль Беларуси от реэкспорта может составлять 3-4 миллиарда долларов в год.

Но в августе в Москве приняли решение о продажу нефтепродуктов и газа в Беларуси резко квотировать. Из-за чего реэкспорт станет невозможным, а в бюджете Минска образуется гигантская дыра.

Дополнительным фактом давления на Минск было назначение «боевого ФСБ-шника» Михаила Бабича на роль посла в Беларуси. Которого, по слухам, часть белорусских элит рассматривает вообще как организатора «аншлюса». Такой была подготовка Владимира Путина к переговорам с Лукашенко, назначенным на 21 сентября. Переговорам, на которых будет решаться судьба дальнейшего экономического сосуществования России и Беларуси, на которых Лукашенко сделает все возможное, чтобы продемонстрировать свою лояльность – и все же открутить нефтяные краны на границе с Россией. Очень похоже, что демонстративное сворачивание сотрудничества с МВФ – это одна из фаз подготовки Минска до августовских выборов, от которых, вероятно, зависит судьба минского режима.

А страх перед «излишне резкими реформами» и «шоком для населения» – это не более чем фигура речи, за которой Лукашенко прячет капитуляцию (пусть и временную) перед Россией.

Любой кредит, конечно, имеет свою цену. В том числе, и сотрудничество с МВФ, экономистов которого нередко критикуют за шаблонный и негибкий подход к различным экономикам, недостаток внимания к потребностям социальной сферы, и вообще – «тайный диктат» над слаборазвитыми странами.

Вот только и отказ от кредита тоже имеет свою цену. Потому что приняв решение отказаться от кредита МВФ, в среднесрочной перспективе Беларусь планирует разместить на рынке России и, возможно, Китая суверенные облигации на сумму до 2 миллиардов долларов. Можно не сомневаться, что процент по этим облигациям будет намного выше, чем по кредиту МВФ. Но не только в этом дело.

Конечно, россиянам будет глубоко безразлично то, с какой скоростью будет реформировать Беларусь свою экономику и будет ли реформировать вообще. Вот только в том, что российский кредит придется возвращать не только деньгами, но и кусками государственного суверенитета, сомневаться не приходится. Это проверено многими постсоветскими государствами и Украиной – в том числе.


Роман Федюк / Деловая столица
Поделитесь.





Новости партнеров



58 комментариев

  1. My coder is trying to convince me to move to .net from PHP.

    I have always disliked the idea because
    of the expenses. But he’s tryiong none the less.
    I’ve been using WordPress on various websites for about a year and am worried about switching to
    another platform. I have heard very good things about blogengine.net.
    Is there a way I can import all my wordpress posts into it?

    Any help would be greatly appreciated!

  2. Wonderful goods from you, man. I have understand your stuff previous
    to and you’re just extremely excellent. I actually like what you’ve acquired here,
    really like what you are saying and the way in which you say it.

    You make it enjoyable and you still care for to keep it sensible.
    I cant wait to read much more from you. This is really a great web site.

  3. I’m not sure exactly why but this blog is loading extremely slow for me.
    Is anyone else having this problem or is it a issue on my end?

    I’ll check back later and see if the problem still exists.

  4. I like what you guys are usually up too. This sort of clever work and exposure!
    Keep up the awesome works guys I’ve included you guys to
    blogroll.

  5. You are so cool! I don’t think I’ve read something like that before.

    So nice to discover another person with some original
    thoughts on this subject matter. Seriously.. thank you for starting this up.
    This site is one thing that’s needed on the web, someone with a little originality!

  6. My spouse and I stumbled over here from a different web address and thought I might as well check things out.
    I like what I see so now i am following you. Look forward to checking out your web page
    yet again.

  7. Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I really appreciate your efforts and I will be waiting for your
    further write ups thanks once again.

  8. Hi, I do think your web site could possibly be
    having internet browser compatibility problems. When I take a look at your
    site in Safari, it looks fine however, if opening in Internet Explorer, it has some overlapping issues.
    I merely wanted to provide you with a quick heads up!

    Apart from that, excellent site!

  9. Hello, i feel that i saw you visited my site so i came to return the choose?.I am trying to
    to find issues to improve my website!I guess its good enough to use a few of your ideas!!

  10. This is the perfect site for anybody who hopes to find out about this topic.
    You know a whole lot its almost hard to argue with you (not that I personally will need
    to…HaHa). You certainly put a brand new spin on a subject which has been discussed
    for many years. Excellent stuff, just great!

  11. I’m not sure exactly why but this blog is loading extremely slow for me.
    Is anyone else having this issue or is it a problem on my
    end? I’ll check back later and see if the problem still exists.

  12. Does your site have a contact page? I’m having trouble locating it but, I’d like to
    send you an e-mail. I’ve got some suggestions for your blog you
    might be interested in hearing. Either way, great blog
    and I look forward to seeing it expand over time.

  13. Thanks for the good writeup. It in reality was a entertainment account it.
    Glance complicated to far introduced agreeable from you!
    By the way, how could we communicate?

  14. After I initially commented I seem to have clicked on the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox
    and from now on every time a comment is added I recieve 4
    emails with the exact same comment. There has to be an easy method you can remove me from that service?
    Many thanks!

  15. Hello! I just wanted to ask if you ever have any problems with hackers?

    My last blog (wordpress) was hacked and I ended up losing months of hard
    work due to no backup. Do you have any solutions to protect against
    hackers?

  16. We stumbled over here different web address
    and thought I should check things out. I like what I see so now i’m following you.
    Look forward to going over your web page repeatedly.

  17. Great post. I used to be checking continuously this blog and I am impressed!
    Very useful info particularly the last section 🙂 I maintain such information a lot.
    I used to be seeking this particular information for a long time.
    Thanks and good luck.

  18. I simply could not go away your site before suggesting that I actually enjoyed the standard
    information an individual provide in your visitors? Is going to be back regularly in order to check up on new posts

  19. Excellent post. I was checking constantly this blog and I am impressed!
    Extremely helpful info specially the last part :
    ) I care for such info a lot. I was seeking this certain information for a very long time.
    Thank you and best of luck.

  20. Appreciating the hard work you put into your website and detailed information you
    present. It’s good to come across a blog every once in a while that isn’t the same old rehashed information. Great
    read! I’ve bookmarked your site and I’m adding your RSS feeds to my
    Google account.

  21. You actually make it appear really easy along with your presentation however I find this topic to
    be actually one thing which I think I might by no means understand.
    It seems too complicated and very extensive for me. I’m looking forward to your subsequent
    publish, I will try to get the dangle of it!

  22. Simply want to say your article is as surprising.
    The clarity for your submit is simply great and i could assume you’re an expert in this subject.
    Fine along with your permission allow me to grasp your feed to stay updated with imminent post.
    Thank you one million and please keep up the gratifying work.

  23. My brother suggested I may like this website. He was totally right.

    This put up actually made my day. You can not imagine just how much time I had spent for this info!
    Thank you!

  24. Hiya very nice website!! Man .. Excellent ..
    Wonderful .. I will bookmark your website and take the feeds
    also? I’m glad to seek out numerous helpful info here in the submit, we’d like develop more techniques on this regard,
    thank you for sharing. . . . . .

  25. Hey there! I’m at work surfing around your blog from my new apple
    iphone! Just wanted to say I love reading through your blog
    and look forward to all your posts! Carry on the
    excellent work!

  26. May I simply say what a comfort to uncover an individual who actually understands what they are talking about on the
    net. You certainly realize how to bring a problem to light and
    make it important. More people need to check this out and understand
    this side of the story. I was surprised you’re not more popular because you certainly possess
    the gift.

  27. Definitely believe that which you said. Your favorite justification seemed to be at the internet the easiest factor to bear
    in mind of. I say to you, I certainly get annoyed whilst other folks think
    about worries that they just don’t know about. You controlled to hit the nail upon the
    top and also defined out the entire thing with no need side effect ,
    folks can take a signal. Will likely be again to get more.
    Thank you

  28. I know this if off topic but I’m looking into starting my own weblog and was curious what all is needed to get setup?
    I’m assuming having a blog like yours would cost a pretty penny?

    I’m not very web savvy so I’m not 100% certain.
    Any recommendations or advice would be greatly appreciated.
    Thanks

  29. When someone writes an paragraph he/she retains the plan of a user in his/her mind that how a user can know it.
    Therefore that’s why this paragraph is outstdanding.
    Thanks!

  30. I got this web page from my pal who informed me on the topic of this
    web site and at the moment this time I am visiting this website and reading very informative articles or reviews at this place.

  31. Awesome blog! Do you have any tips for aspiring writers?
    I’m planning to start my own blog soon but I’m a little lost
    on everything. Would you suggest starting with a free platform like WordPress or go for a paid option? There are so many options out there that I’m
    completely overwhelmed .. Any tips? Bless you!

  32. Good day! Do you use Twitter? I’d like to follow you if that would be okay.
    I’m definitely enjoying your blog and look
    forward to new posts.

  33. of course like your web-site but you have to take a look at the
    spelling on several of your posts. A number of them are rife
    with spelling issues and I to find it very troublesome to tell the truth
    then again I’ll certainly come back again.

  34. What’s up, every time i used to check blog posts here in the early hours in the break of day, since i love to gain knowledge
    of more and more.

  35. Pretty section of content. I just stumbled upon your blog and in accession capital to assert that I acquire in fact enjoyed account your blog posts.
    Anyway I will be subscribing to your feeds and even I achievement you access consistently
    quickly.

  36. Valuable information. Fortunate me I found your web site accidentally, and I’m
    stunned why this coincidence didn’t took place earlier!
    I bookmarked it.

  37. Do you mind if I quote a couple of your posts as long as
    I provide credit and sources back to your site?

    My website is in the exact same niche as yours and my users would definitely benefit from some of the information you present here.
    Please let me know if this okay with you. Thanks!

  38. I am actually glad to read this website posts which contains
    lots of helpful information, thanks for providing these kinds
    of statistics.

  39. For most up-to-date news you have to go to see internet
    and on the web I found this web site as a best web site for newest updates.

Оставьте комментарий

19 − четырнадцать =