среда, 24 апреля 2019 | О ПРОЕКТЕ | КОНТАКТЫ

Константин Боровой: Экономика России изолирована Фактически доллар больше почти не связан с экономической деятельностью России. Cитуация очень напоминает то, что было в Советском Союзе

Курс доллара к рублю на Московской бирже поднимался до 71,45 рублей. Последний раз американская валюта превышала этот показатель 16 марта 2016 года.

Фактически доллар больше почти не связан с экономической деятельностью России. Этот фактор в его курсе играет роль 5%. Произошла изоляция экономики и эта ситуация очень напоминает то, что было в Советском Союзе. Тогда официальный курс доллара тоже существенно колебался – от 0,56 до 0,9. На «черном рынке», конечно, все было по-другому. Но курс доллара определялся соображениями, которые были связаны только с мнением Центрального банка.

Сейчас курс доллара определяется только внутренней политикой. То есть, сколько напечатать денег, незаработанных. Даже от стоимости нефти рубль зависит меньше, чем это было, пока Россия была в рамках рыночной экономики и все регулировалось реальными экономическими отношениями.

Сейчас ситуация изменилась. Кремлю выгодно, чтобы курс был повыше, а граждане с большим удовольствием сдают свою валюту за деревянные. Все-таки они ее зарабатывают и доля заработанной и полученной валюты довольно высока. Во всяком случае, она видна на фоне нефтяных доходов.

Инфляция регулирует отношения с пенсионерами, с госслужащими. Это зарплаты и пенсии. Фактически ничего не надо делать, содержательная часть пенсий и зарплат существенно снижается и по существу государство получает прибыль. Недаром Путин на последней пресс-конференции хвалился профицитным бюджетом. Он мог бы сделать его профицитным не на 1,5-2%, а на 10-50%. Это не фокус.

Главный вывод, что в условиях, когда Россия перестает быть частью структуры рыночных отношений, курс доллара уже не является показательным. Этот вопрос полностью регулированный и зависит от воли и желания власти покупать у экспортеров и продавать импортерам доллар.

Да, госкорпорации переводят деньги за рубеж, но по существу определяют уже не рыночные отношения, а интересы кремлевских групп. Политические партии Кремля условно делят на разные группы силовиков: силовиков-либералов, силовиков-консерваторов, просто либералов. Но есть еще один разрез – это экспортеры и импортеры – те, кто заинтересован в высоком курсе доллара и те, кто заинтересован в низком курсе.

Есть еще интересы граждан, которые, конечно, хотели бы, чтобы содержательная часть их доходов не падала так стремительно, но у них нет своих лоббистов в Кремле и в правительстве. Поэтому их мнение Кремлю не особенно интересно.


Константин Боровой / Обозреватель
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