среда, 24 апреля 2019 | О ПРОЕКТЕ | КОНТАКТЫ

Виталий Портников: Год без Крыма для Путина Крымский эффект в России окончательно испарился в 2018 году – это показали и социологические опросы, и новые, «посткрымские» интересы россиян

О чем могу говорить со всей уверенностью, думая про 2019 год, – так это о том, что для российской пропаганды, для Владимира Путина это будет год без Крыма.

Крымский эффект окончательно испарился в 2018 году – это показали и социологические опросы, и новые, «посткрымские» интересы россиян. И это несмотря на то, что тема Керченского моста была использована на все сто процентов – и российскими политиками, и пропагандистами, и крымским начальством.

Но мост открыли не вовремя. Наступило посткрымское похмелье.

Когда Крым аннексировали, высокие цены на нефть позволяли не ассоциировать последствия внешней политики Владимира Путина для кошелька каждого гражданина его страны. Но со временем стало ясно, что благосостояние россиян обеспечивалось не политикой руководства страны, а исключительно нефтяными ценами. И готовность к конфликту с Западом, которая привела к санкциям и экономическому провалу, обернулась значительным ухудшением уровня жизни граждан.

Накануне Нового года российские медиа в один голос предсказывали, что негативные тенденции будут лишь нарастать. И при этом не видно ни готовности изменить самоубийственную внешнюю политику страны, ни воли к реформам. А в чем тогда смысл «крымского эффекта»?

Когда Крым аннексировали, решение Владимира Путина казалось эффектным завершением процесса «вставания с колен», обеспеченного бесконтрольной тратой нефтедолларов. Прошло всего несколько лет – и Россия вновь на коленях, причем прочно и без всякого шанса подняться с них в ближайшие годы, если не десятилетия. И это – не образ.

Экономический рост России практически остановлен, в то время как в странах Запада он продолжается. А это значит, что с каждым годом Россия будет отставать от цивилизованного мира, превращаться в экономическую, политическую, культурную провинцию, огромный музей прошлого от Калининграда до Владивостока. А Крым, который еще недавно казался Путину жемчужиной в короне придуманной им империи, а россиянам – доказательством торжества «сакральной» исторической справедливости, становится обузой, еще одним регионом, на который нужно тратить деньги, которых нет.

Именно поэтому 2019 год будет годом без Крыма – об оккупированном полуострове, уверен, перестанут вспоминать, он не будет интересовать ни россиян, ни Владимира Путина. Понемногу из власти Крыма выгонят ветеранов «крымской весны», чтобы заменить их (впоследствии назвав мошенниками) московскими менеджерами и уменьшить расходы на полуостров. Крым исчезнет из российской информационной повестки до того самого дня, пока преемник Путина не начнет переговоры о возвращении его Украине – потому что будет отчаянно нуждаться в западной помощи для спасения проваливающегося в экономическую пропасть государства и согласится с любыми требованиями цивилизованного мира, чтобы эту помощь получить.

Вот тогда в России вновь вспомнят о Крыме – об украинском Крыме.


Виталий Портников / Крым.Реалии
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